Drought assessment summer 1383/2004

Evidence in some areas of Afghanistan suggests that drought conditions have returned since the relief that  good rains brought in 2003/1382.  President Karzai in July 2004 asked government ministries, UN agencies and NGOs to develop a drought appeal document which analyses the situation and the nature and level of assistance required  as part of emergency support.

The Vulnerability Analysis Unit within the MRRD in close collaboration with the Ministry of Irrigation/FAO, Ministry of Agriculture/FAO agro-meteorological unit, WFP VAM, FEWS-NET & UNHCR has put together an initial impact analysis of the drought.

A briefing paper was prepared for the Cabinet meeting of 30th August 04. Copies are available in both Dari and English.
Drought in Afghanistan 24 Aug 2004 Cabinet brief-Dari [164KB]
Drought in Afghanistan 24 Aug 2004 Cabinet brief-Eng [45KB]

This analysis has led to a flash appeal, prepared in partnership by the Government of the Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan and the United Nations. This document will be used to advocate the donors in country to respond to the identified needs.

Flash Appeal - Afghanistan drought Aug 04 - Eng [141KB]
Flash Appeal - Executive Summary Aug 04 - Dari [90KB]
Flash Appeal - Executive Summary Aug 04-Pashto [69KB]

Initial report on province and district level estimates of food insecurity can be downloaded from the links below. The estimates of food security are based on the understanding of rural livelihoods developed from last year's NRVA survey, but modified with information from satellite images of vegetation growth [NDVI] and recent market prices.  A repeat of the NRVA 2003 is not planed until spring, 2005 as this is thought to be a more appropriate time to look at vulnerability and poverty.

Drought Situation in Afghanistan 24 Aug 2004 [2.6MB]
NRVA 2003 calorie & NRVA 2004 food insecurity Provincial & District estimates  [184KB]

Data that has been utilized but not presented in the analysis above is included in PowerPoint files with NDVI images, food security estimates & NRVA water sources and market prices and an analysis of drought with long term climatic data.
NDVI images - Drought Response Analysis Aug 04 [563KB]
Food security estimates & water source maps - Drought Response Analysis Aug 04 [1.5MB]
Drought in Afghanistan Analysis FEWS DAI Aug 04 [13.9MB]
Market Prices - Drought Response Analysis Aug 04 [157KB]
Afghanistan Food Security Monitoring Bulletin (AFSMB) [1650KB]
Afghanistan Food Security Bulletin [1660KB]

Two inter-ministerial drought impacts assessments have been conducted.  The first one took place in June/July 2004 at surveyed 12 southern province and was lead by the Ministry of Irrigation.  Findings are available below:
Drought Assessment 12 provinces July 04 [800KB]

Field information soon revealed that the drought had reached a larger area than originally surveyed, and thus the government conducted another assessment in 14 provinces (Figure 1). The second assessment was conducted during September 2004. The objective of the assessment was to identify the areas worst affected by the drought in order to understand the severity and nature of the impact. It was also meant to highlight areas that were the worst need of immediate drought-related assistance.

Summary of findings and full report available below:
14 Provinces drought survey-Summary findings- Sep 04  [220KB]
14 Province drought assessment analysis-Sep 04 [716KB]

To ensure that the government and collaborating agencies are regularly updated on the changing impact of the low rainfall in areas of Afghanistan, ongoing collection of information on provincial and district level market prices as well as displacement due to drinking water and food shortages is occurring.  This information is part of the institutionalized Early warning Monitoring and Information System being currently developed by the Vulnerability Analysis Unit and partners.