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Annotated agenda for NSS Phase II 1^st steering committee meeting

17^th November 2005, 10:00 am, Minister’s Conference room, MRRD

Attended by:

Introduction from Deputy Minister for CSO from Ministry of Economy.

Recently new statistical law has been drafted in line with the international recommendations made in the Statistical Master Plan.    This law grants CSO an independent budget and independent status, but the law has still to be finally confirmed.  With regards to the independence of CSO, it is clear that the ministers are in agreement with this as a principal.  The deputy minister claimed that the most important independence is budgetary independence because of the extra layer of bureaucracy that is entailed when going through the Ministry of Economy.  CSO will have a separate budget from the Ministry of economy regardless of its eventual institutional status.

1.      Introduction to NSS project & explanation of roles & responsibilities of Steering Committee

A memorandum of understanding regarding the governance of phase 2 of the project was signed between the European Commission, CSO and MRRD. This included a provision for the formation of a project steering committee who’s main functions are:

• Supervise and ensure the project is implemented generally in accordance with sound, verifiable and transparent accounting, reporting and auditing standards;

• Oversee the management of the project to ensure its objectives are being met in a measurable and verifiably manner;

• Maintain a close watch on technical delivery to see that project objectives are being translated into measurable and verifiable benefits;

• Review and approve the funding of the various programme components and supervise the budgetary disbursement procedures, allocation and reallocation;

• Approve all the specified reports and work plans and ensure the monitoring and evaluation procedures and general management functions are being performed in accordance with international best practice;

• Address and settle all programme issues related to policy, administrative, coordination and financial aspects of programme implementation;

• Issue comprehensive meeting minutes with details of attendees, an overview of programme outputs, a summary of progress, financial expenditure, constraints and outstanding issues; and,

• Supervise and coordinate the provisions of this memorandum of understanding.

Comments

There was some discussion on whether a steering committee meeting with such a broad range of responsibilities as outlined above would be sufficient every six months. 

It was argued that the project is one with very clear and readily defined outputs, and that in the protocol drawing up the steering committee there is provision for an extra-ordinary meeting at any point should the need arise.  It was suggested that a quarterly report update could be circulated to the steering committee members which would maintain the profile of the National Surveillance System project in peoples minds.

Steering committee members unanimously approved the proposal that National Surveillance System quarterly report should be circulated to all steering committee members.

2.      Should the NRVA remain annual or move to biennial? 

There is a clear demand for biennial updates on most of the indicators, and recent consultations where some stakeholders confirm that this felt to be better use of the money.  Therefore it is proposed that the project move to a biennial scheduling for NRVA and make provision for the 3^rd project supported NRVA implementation after the period of technical assistance has finished. The pilot food security household monitoring system will be able to provide intervening updates from selected sentinel districts.  This household monitoring system is a light questionnaire following up on selected districts with the same household sample as NRVA 2005.  The districts selected are thought to be those most likely to be impacted by covariate shocks (drought, floods, and winter snow).  Its objectives are to understand seasonal dimensions to aspects of employment and food security, as well as act as an early warning indicator of seriously deteriorating livelihoods.  This would trigger further and more extensive survey should the trends in these simple indicators suggest concern.

It has been suggested by project leadership to the Asian Development Bank that they delay the implementation of their household income and expenditure survey until the analysis of NRVA 2005 has been completed.  This would allow the design of the income and expenditure survey to include any data needs not met by NRVA 2005. 

Comments

MRRD strongly supported the move from an annual to a biennial schedule for the NRVA assessments.  They pointed out that in effect, we already have started a biennial assessment schedule as there was an NRVA in 2003 and now this year 2005.

MRRD has now moved from short-term relief operated planning to a 3-5 year planning horizon.  This reduces the need for annual updates of data, particularly as the development indicators are unlikely to change significantly from one year to another.  It is also suggested that the money for the three surveys could still be used over a six-year timeframe, allowing for some surveys to take place after the period of technical assistance of the project has finished.  Clarification from the European Commission is needed on mechanism of this.   It was recognized that significant survey fatigue exists in many areas of Afghanistan, and a biennial survey schedule would reduce the potential negative impact of such fatigue.

Experience from NRVA 2003 is that it takes time to get the quality and appropriate analysis data products and policy recommendations out and for these to be digested and incorporated in programmes.  It was felt that an annual survey would literally be too hectic for programs to cope with the increased flow of information coming their way.  It was stressed that the timing of the surveys and the comparability of results are important, and if initial results can be ready by the end of December, they can inform programme planning for this round of budget preparation for the following financial year. In MRRD program reviews are taking place in December and January.

CSO also pointed out that many of the social indicators do not change very fast, for example literacy rates and enrolment.  CSO supported the move to a biennial schedule. CSO also pointed out the very important danger of having to surveys producing estimates on the same indicators at the same time.  Potentially it undermines both survey’s credibility, and CSO strongly suggested that this should be avoided at all costs.

The European Commission suggested that in early years of post-conflict Reconstruction, a regular data updates was required.   The NSS team leader pointed out that currently there is literally not enough capacity in the project to both implement analyse write reports for a survey every year without significantly sacrificing capacity building for Afghan staff.  Many of the results from NRVA 2003 were produced in an isolated remote fashion that did nothing to improve capacity building of Afghan team members.  Analysing and writing up reports from NRVA 2005 provides an excellent learning by doing experience for team members, but this needs extra time to ensure this process is effective. Therefore the only way that such an annual schedule could possibly be entertained is if capacity building is totally abandoned.  The NSS team leader went on to point out that currently Afghans already completely manage and implement data collection and automated data entry.  The remaining processes for which capacity building has to focus upon is analysis and report writing.

While most of the steering committee members were strongly in favor of a biennial schedule for NRVA, it is proposed that before the end of the year a short document is written by NSS project management documenting the challenges encountered with NRVA 2003, the improvements that have been incorporated in NRVA 2005, and the lessons learnt through the implementation of NRVA 2005.  This should be sent to the steering committee members for a final decision on the change and the scheduling of NRVAs.

The ADB funded household income and expenditure survey has not yet reached any implementation beyond the inception report stage.  The comparative advantage of NRVA 2005 over the proposed study was the size of the sample as NRVA 2005 has 45 analytical domains.  The ADB said they would likely only have regional domains at best, and these do not relate to any administrative or functional scale of government.  In fact there has been a presidential statement saying that planning should not take place at a regional level.  Analysis of NRVA 2005 data has now been incorporated by the World Bank as one of their set of triggers for releasing International development assistance money to Afghanistan.  This replaces the analysis of the ADB household income and expenditure survey which has faltered in implementation.

Steering committee recommended scheduling a meeting with appropriate staff from ADB, European commission, NSS project and appropriate MRRD and CSO staff to clarify ADBs plans for their survey, once the European Commission has clarified the implications of a biennial work schedule on the availability of money from the project after the end of the three-year phase 2. The option of the Asian development bank contributing to the schedule of NRVAs could also be investigated.

Clarification on the status of official district boundaries.  CSO informed the steering committee that some district governors are still disagreeing with the proposed government boundaries.  Some claim ownership of a village or a group of villages which is also been claimed by a neighbouring district governor. 

3.      Data dissemination & analysis strategy with government, national & international partners.

There were several lessons learned from the analysis from NRVA 2003. International actors took certain aspects of the data and analysed at in isolation from national counterparts and national government programmes.  This created confusion in the international agencies as well as distance and lack of capacity building with the NSS project and associated government programmes.  This was partly done to meet acute needs of data delivery, and the lack of human resources capable of the analysis in an experiential learning mode.  Now teams of potential analysts are available, and these must be fully involved in the analysis of NRVA data products.  A good example of this method of collaboration is recent negotiations in discussions with World Bank, John’s Hopkins University in the Ministry of Public Health relating to the analysis and dissemination of and data products emanating out of the health indicators collected in NRVA 2005.  This has led to a memorandum of understanding between the Ministry of Public Health and the Central statistics Office which stresses joint training and learning by doing the analysis together.  This will both maximise the experiential learning, and eliminate any duplication in an effort and publication of different figures for the same indicators.

Comments

MRRD indicated that it is very important to credit the government for the data that it has produced, and all third parties using NRVA data must also agree not only to share their publications but to produce them in Dari as well.  CSO suggested publishing documents like the statistical Yearbook which are bilingual.

The steering committee agrees that analysis of NRVA could be carried by third parties in the 2 following modes indicated below in order of preference:

1.      Analyse NRVA data in full collaboration with government partners and CSO to produce public data products in both English and Dari and thereby maximising the learning  by doing capacity building experience for Afghan staff.

2.      Analyse NRVA with little or no collaboration with government, but publication of data and analytical products in both English and Dari with full and correct reference to the data sources and institution. 

4.      Disaster management information service housed within Vulnerability Analysis Unit in MRRD

One weakness of the NSS project has been the ability to respond to government’s information needs immediately after an acute shock such as an earthquake, flooding or heavy snowfall. To this end, further discussions and collaborations with the Disaster Management Information System initiative of the UNDP/AIMS, based within MRRD, are recommended.

The pilot disaster management information system project housed at AIMS has been in operation for a number of months and will finish in December 2005.It has three components:

·         the development and population of a database documenting impact of disasters,

·         remote sensing modeling of the impact of flooding, which to date has being piloted in two watersheds (Kabul and Kunduz)

·         GIS aspects of presenting and summarising the findings from the two previous components.

UNDP has currently agreed to incorporate the Disaster Management Information System in a five-year project plan.  Currently the institutional home is within AIMS but it has been agreed to move this to MRRD.  It was not situated in the Department of Disaster Preparedness because of poor capacity.

It is recommended that the Vulnerability Analysis Unit and the Disaster Management Information System ensure that there is regular communication between these two units to ensure sharing of data and production of analytical products which add value beyond the analytical products produced by each unit alone. This will ensure that MRRD is able to call upon a range of data products from annual assessments through to information upon which to base an emergency response.

Comments

MRRD – UNDP is supporting the Department of disaster preparedness as well as advocating for the Disaster Management Information System to be located in MRRD, therefore, potentially there are mixed messages emerging from UNDP. MRRD does not want to be the long-term institutional home for the Disaster Management Information System, as this is not institutionally and politically viable in the long run.  MRRD inevitably takes a lead in response, as most disasters are occurring in the rural areas, and by default, also takes a leading coordinating response. MRRD wants to be seen as primarily a development Ministry, with medium-term planning horizons of 3-5 years. 

Steering committee agreed that the National Surveillance System project should not embrace provision of data for disaster management, but should forge regular communication and interactions with the Disaster Management Information System once it is established, to ensure that improved analytical products can be produced from the combined data sources from the National Surveillance System and the Disaster Management Information System.

5.      Proposed consultancy to evaluate and develop improved Internet access to data generated by the NSS project

A consultancy is proposed by the consultancy consortium 23 November -04 December 2005  where a database expert will evaluate existing data dissemination used by the project, other database and data dissemination initiatives (Microdata Management Toolset from the World Bank, and the WFP VAM Spatial Information Environment) and see remaining gaps and how improve data access can be provided by the project.

The project considers establishing a database providing information to an interactive Internet Site that allows all partners and interested persons accessing to standardized data tables as well as to individual tables generated by the users themselves. An example for this online database is the EC’s Internet presentation of the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) public database available under the following Internet address: www.europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/rica/diffusion_en.cfm.

The expert shall propose a draft of the information system to be developed outlining the basic elements of the system, the integration of existing databases, the necessary infrastructure and a time frame for its implementation.  The steering committee is asked to approve such a consultancy for the project.

Comments

The steering committee approves this consultancy with the proviso that such work benefits not just the projects activities but CSO's data dissemination activities through the Internet as well.   The steering committee also recommends that the project consider funding a full-time Web site maintenance officer for both CSO and MRRD, particularly if interactive databases are to be maintained.  Previously it was not thought that that was sufficient work for just the project web site to warrant employing a full-time Web maintenance and design officer, but with this expanded role of MRRD and CSO web site maintenance along with implementation of interactive data web sites this now could be written up as it turned full-time terms of reference.

6.      Provincial government engagement developed through two pilots

Given the uncertainty about the future of provincial governance in the light of provincial elections, the formation of provincial shuras and provincial development councils, it is proposed that developing data and analytical products for provincial government is piloted.  Piloting support at a provincial level for decision-making could be a cost-effective way of developing a better understanding of appropriate provincial data products to be expanded to a national program at a later date. Two opportunities presently exist to pilot the NSS provincial approach:

1.       Recent discussions with MRRD indicate that a pilot in Kandahar province will take place whereby Provincial Development Councils will be supported and trained to engage with Community Development Councils (an elected village development council produced as a result of the national solidarity programme) and the newly elected Provincial Shuras. They will be attempting to develop an integrated development strategy for the province, with funds provided by CIDA’s alternative livelihoods programme.  Two aspects of data from NRVA could be important, ensuring that the provincial and district plans match the gaps and needs identified from NRVA data, and provide a basis for justifying programming decisions to ensure district equity in allocation of resources according to development needs.

2.       Provincial engagement during the development of the Afghan National Development Strategy will be piloted in six provinces using both the information developed during the Millennium Development Goal report and further data products. There will be support from UNAMA for capacity building, and therefore there is an excellent opportunity for this project to work with the Afghan government and UNAMA to ensure that any data needs that the project can supply are done so in an appropriate format.

It is therefore proposed that the project engages with both these pilots, and postpones procurement of vehicles and other office equipment needed to set up regional NSS offices covering the whole country until the results of this pilot justify this development.

Comments
MRRD – is developing its sub-national strategy, trying to integrate different streams of its existing programs.  Local governance is very important; already there is an element of this that has been established with the community development councils of the National Solidarity Programme (NSP). Province shuras have recently been elected, and provincial development councils (PDCs) formed by presidential decree.  Ministry of Economy is taking the lead on the elaboration of PDCs.  The initial pilot of this approach will take place in Kandahar province, as the Canadians, who already have a PRT in that province wished to link development activities with in areas where they have a PRT presence.   Kandahar has being selected as the 1^st pilot province simply because of the availability of funds from a donor who wishes to work in this mode in an area where they already have PRT presence. Despite the high-security environment, only Afghan staff will be involved, and only local contractors will be used only.  If successful, similar arrangements could be developed in Helmand of support from the British, and Uruzgan the support from the Dutch, where both respective countries have PRTs based. 

 

Planning will be through the province – district – village continuum, trying to develop an integrated rural development programme including sectors of agricultural, energy & water, public works. and counter narcotics.  There will be no need to look at the province and the amounts of money that are going into the district's republic investments and ensure issue of district equity is addressed. There will be an important role of identifying gaps and district level for rural development, hence the importance of district development plans.  PDC have to visual their provinces, bottom-up from the community development councils.  To achieve this there is a need to develop capacity of both province and district. 

NSS indicated that district level planning can be aided by a combination of NRVA data was CSO household listing/village facility data.  The latter is in the process of being ported to a modern database structure for which Afghan staff within CSO will have the ability to control and manipulate. 

MRRD indicated its appreciation of CSO in their willingness to supply this very valuable data to assist in these pilots in the district and provincial level planning.  MRRD recommends Peter Spink be involved in further discussions in this area.

CSO - household listing exercise update.  This exercise started in 2002 and was originally intended to last for only 18 months but security concerns and certain areas in Afghanistan have prevented all of the country being covered.  Currently there are only a few districts remaining and it would be quite possible to go ahead and conductor centres without enumerating any further districts.  The Governor of Kandahar, where there are remaining districts, indicated after the provincial elections if the security climate improved, he would recommend this is the time for enumeration. 

The second form of provincial engagement, the ANDS province consultations will be lead by MRRD, and take place during the course of the development of the full ANDS next year. 

The steering committee fully supports the recommendation that the National Surveillance System actively engage in these two provincial planning pilots.

7.      Posts of part-time regional coordinators to be abolished

The initial project document (ToR) had provision for regional coordinators to help with the oversight of NRVA surveys. They were used for the oversight in NRVA 2005, but it is felt that it is much more appropriate that full-time NSS project staff from CSO and MRRD fulfill these roles.  The benefit being that these project staff are familiar with the survey, data collection techniques and will have incorporated lessons learned from previous surveys.  Should there be need for extra staff at project headquarters in CSO, it is suggested that extra staff are taken on from CSO.  This was the approach used for NRVA 2005 which worked well.  The need for regional and possibly provincial staff may re-emerge as the deconcentration of MRRD’s activities increases, and the demand for data product delivery at provincial and district level increases.

The steering committee supports the abolition of the posts of part-time regional coordinators.

Comments

If there is a need for a change in the even MRRD or CSO structure at provincial level to ensure appropriate data and analytical product delivery to the provincial and district planning processes, the European Commission could funds this development from its support to the NSP, but this would need further discussion and elaboration.

8.      Other studies and filling information gaps

We invite steering committee members to identify hitherto un-met data and analytical product needs for their programming and policy development, and to suggest that the NSS project considers incorporating these within its data collection activities.  There is an activity within the project called special studies, and a list of potential studies have been drawn up.  Guidance from the steering committee is sought to help prioritise or add other potential research topics.

CSO advisers suggested and the steering committee concurred that an e-mail survey to the border stakeholder group concerning outstanding data needs that have not been met with the current activities within the NSS project should be undertaken.  Results from such consultations could be included in the report justifying change in scheduling of NRVA from annual to biennial.

Currently, a mid-term NSP evaluation is underway and being conducted by York University.  They are visiting communities and households, and is need to include review of the NSP related data and emerging from NRVA 2005. Shanthini Dawson to facilitate introduction.

The World Bank has discussed using NRVA 2005 for an analysis of NSP, but in line with agenda item number three, this analysis can go ahead as long as it is collaborative, capacity building, jointly published with Dari translation.  MRRD would like to see clarification from the World Bank on the expected value added from such work.   

9.      Technical committee for NRVA oversight

CSO has a tradition of forming technical oversight committees for the implementation of large surveys. This technical oversight committee will be convened for each of the annual NRVA surveys and will consist of 3 senior CSO staff experienced in large scale survey implementation.  The roles and responsibilities the members of the technical oversight committee are to:

·         Participate and peer review the questionnaire design and sampling scheme for NRVA.

·         Make supervision visits to training sessions and field testing and enumeration of the NRVA assessment, with a view to making recommendations on improvements that can be incorporated in the current NRVA and points for consideration in following surveys.

·         Promote, support and facilitate the NRVA data dissemination to government and other clients.

·         Participate in the database validation to ensure that the NRVA data released is of high standard. 

·         Facilitate information sharing among appropriate stakeholders on the all stages on the NRVA process to ensure that there is widespread consensus on NRVA design and implementation.

·         Facilitate administrative procedures and letters to ensure that there is active and quality participation from the other stakeholder ministries and agencies.

Furthermore it is noted that:

·         The mandate of this technical committee for a NRVA ceases with the public release of the NRVA data for that year.

·         The project will not make further payments of DSA to members of the technical committee when they are in the field with NRVA oversight activities.

·         This technical committee shall receive remuneration for no more than 3 people for a period of 2 months @ 24 working full days per month @ $25 per person per working day, so that the total amount does not exceed $3600 per NRVA ($600 per person per month). 

·         Payments will be made in 2 stages.  Half at the outset of the planning process of the NRVA and final 50% once the NRVA data have been publicly released.

It is recommended that these technical oversight committees are agreed and provision made within the project budget.

The steering committee endorses the formation and payments to a NRVA technical oversight committee.  In line with the terms above, a payment for NRVA 2005 will be made retroactively.

10. Increasing number of analysts staff in Vulnerability Analysis Unit, MRRD and NSS Unit, CSO

It is proposed that the number of analysts is increased from 3 to 5 in the Vulnerability Analysis Unit in MRRD and from 3 to 6 in the NSS unit in CSO. This has been proposed to ensure that there is sufficient staff to cover the workload and to insulate the project against loss of crucial capacity if key staff members leave.

The steering committee approves the increase in staffing levels of analysts in both Vulnerability Analysis Unit and National Surveillance System CSO unit.

11. Salary scales for analysts and super scales for senior analysts

Currently the analysts within the project, all regular government employees, are receiving a top up (DSA for Civil Servants trained under the project) of $200 per month. It is proposed that:

1.       That this level in future becomes inflation linked based upon Kabul consumer price index annual inflation rate and reviewed annually. 

2.       If interim additional allowances start to be paid directly from the Ministry of Finance, it is proposed that this project will reduce the analyst’s salary level by the same amount that is being paid by the Ministry of Finance; thereby ensuring staff will not experience a salary reduction as a result of PRR.

3.       To reward and encourage exceptional analysts, we suggest to introduce the post of senior analyst for which a top up of $500 per month is proposed.  This has been taken from guidelines for PRR super-scale salary based on the description of supervising technical specialist who salary ranges $403-$580.

Although not discussed directly in the steering committee meeting, subsequent discussions with the Deputy Minister for Finance in MRRD indicate that increases in PRR type payments will not be made.  Recently there has been a small pay rise made of Afs 350 made only to those civil servants who have not completed the PRR process.  Steering committee clarified that it is not possible for the project to pay any top up after their staff have passed through PRR.  The MRRD policy advisor recommended that it was important to ensure that our staff are appropriately graded, and if this happens it is unlikely that their PRR salary will be less than $200.

The creation of the new position of senior analyst based upon PRR super scale salary in a range of $403-$580 was approved by the steering committee.

12. Other items for discussion

No other items were raised for discussion.

13. Time date & place for next steering committee meeting

Next in a committee meeting will take place in CSO in about six months unless there is need for a meeting in the meantime.

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